First make sure you survive, then go for the big win
Originally written in Chinese. Translated with AI, reviewed by Gary. Read the Chinese original →
Today I happened to watch Morgan Stanley's interview with the legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller.
If you're not familiar with the finance world, here's a quick background.
In 1992, he and George Soros shorted the British pound and made more than US$1 billion in a single trade. Later, the fund he ran himself returned about 30% a year from 1981 to 2010, without a single losing year.
In investing, he's an almost mythical figure. But a few things he said in this interview really stayed with me.
The ability to pull the trigger
The first thing that surprised me was that he said he isn't actually especially smart. He even said quite directly that his edge isn't IQ, but "the ability to pull the trigger".
A lot of the analysis is done by experts on his team. He admitted frankly that when analysts start talking about complex technology or industry detail, he often doesn't fully understand it. But he's very clear on one thing: analysis can come from the team, from experts, from your network, but the person who finally makes the decision and carries the risk can only be you.
We often assume successful people must be the smartest. After hearing him, I came away thinking that maybe the truly scarce ability isn't analysis, but being able to make a decision when things are uncertain.
Investing is an emotional game
The second thing that struck me was how he talked about the emotions of investing.
He said investing isn't a fully rational game. It's more of an emotional one. For many years of his career he was often extremely anxious, sometimes vomiting once or twice a week, simply from the pressure.
He also said he has long had impostor syndrome. Even with such extraordinary results, part of him still wonders whether it was really just luck.
An investor with 30% annual returns thinks like that too.
We often imagine experts as very calm and very rational, but the truth may be exactly the opposite.
Survive first
The third thing was his investment logic.
Many people understand investing as black-and-white calls. Bullish, go all in long; bearish, sell everything. But Druckenmiller's approach is more like building an ecosystem, a matrix.
His portfolio holds many different directions at once. Some positions are bullish, some are hedges. He might hold gold and copper at the same time, invest in Japanese and Korean stocks, and elsewhere be short the US dollar or US bonds.
His core logic isn't being completely right every time. It's making sure of one thing first: survive.
If nothing special happens, his portfolio still makes money. If a black swan really does hit, his gains are amplified.
It sounds simple, but it's deep: first make sure you don't die, then go for the big win.
What am I actually doing?
Why did this hit me so hard?
Because over the past two years of building my business, I've had a nagging question.
In startups you often hear: you have to focus. But I keep asking myself, what am I actually doing?
Am I building a brand? If so, shouldn't I be finding ambassadors and doing branding? But that doesn't feel quite right.
Am I running a service business? Then shouldn't I build a sales team, set KPIs and go hunting for clients everywhere? That doesn't seem right either.
Am I an MCN? Should I focus on developing influencers? Or am I actually building a platform, or even an AI company?
Honestly, I don't have a particularly clear answer myself. Sometimes it even feels a bit messy.
But gradually I realised that many of these things weren't planned on purpose. They came about because different pain points showed up at the same time.
When a brand asked us to help with online sales, we became their enabler.
When a supplier faced inventory pressure, we used content and channels to help clear it.
When the team grew, I went looking for new projects so the team's capabilities could be put to use.
These look like many different businesses, but behind them there's only one logic: solving problems.
Until today, after watching the Druckenmiller interview, I had a new thought. Maybe what I'm doing doesn't look "focused" enough, but it's really more like a risk hedge.
Because in today's environment, nobody truly knows how the future will go.
Often all we can do is build and test at the same time. Some things might bring in only small revenue; some might become new businesses in the future. If nothing happens, at least the company keeps running. But if one direction takes off, the whole system may be amplified.
One last point I think matters: whether it's investing or entrepreneurship, neither is a fully rational game.
It's more of an emotional game.
Anyone who has started a business probably knows that the hardest part often isn't the business logic. It's the anxiety, the doubt, the pressure, and the constant uncertainty.
How to keep going through all those emotions may be the biggest challenge of entrepreneurship.
For founders, one thing really matters: do what you believe in.
Not what others think is right, but what you yourself feel you should do. Very often, that in itself is the most important fuel for building a business.