Are founders irrational?
Originally written in Chinese. Translated with AI, reviewed by Gary. Read the Chinese original →
Recently I came across a video on social media of an exchange between Elon Musk and Bill Gates. It came from a sensitive topic: Gates had shorted Tesla while its market value was soaring. As Tesla's founder, Musk challenged him: "You're already that rich, so why short a company working on climate change just to make a little money?"
Gates's reasoning was very "rational": he thought Tesla was overvalued and too risky, so shorting it was a sensible investment strategy. Musk's response didn't sound like a discussion about finance. It sounded more like a statement of belief: "We are trying to change the world, not arbitrage it."
In this clash, Gates stands for the "rational person" in the traditional sense: weigh the returns, calculate the risk, make the choice. His logic is flawless. But Musk stands for another, deeper kind of rationality, an obsession that says: "I know this road is hard, but if I don't do it, the world won't change."
What is "rational", really?
Growing up, "rational" is treated as another word for good judgement. Study rationally for exams, assess investments rationally, plan your life rationally. In mainstream economics, the "rational person" is the model of efficiency, optimising and weighing trade-offs. They avoid low odds, reject uncertainty, and always look for the safest path between resources and risk.
But if everyone in the world were that "rational", we might still be in the steam-engine age. No smartphones, no electric cars, no internet, maybe not even planes.
Because almost every invention that changed the world began as an "irrational" decision: very low odds of success, an unclear path, high costs, and returns far out of reach. By normal logic, none of them were worth the investment. And yet, someone always chose to try, to bet, to keep going.
Those people are founders.
Founders: pioneers of "irrational choices"
It isn't that they don't understand risk, or that they're fearless out of ignorance. Quite the opposite. Founders are often the people who know the odds of failure best and understand the limits most clearly. They still choose to go forward, not because they're optimistic, but because they believe some problems will never be solved if nobody takes them on, and some roads will never exist unless they walk them.
Why start a company?
For many people, starting a company might mean financial freedom, flexible time, or a ticket to chase a dream. But for real founders, the reason is often simpler and more fundamental than that.
It's an obsession with changing something.
They know the road is hard, and they know it may not lead to victory. But they walk it because they can't accept a life in which they never tried, never carried anything, never made a difference with their own life.
Finally: being irrational is another kind of deep judgement
Rational doesn't mean safe, and irrational doesn't mean blind. Sometimes real rationality isn't stopping at probability analysis, but being willing to ask:
"If I don't do it, who will?" "Is this worth it, even if it fails?"
Founders aren't necessarily the smartest people, but they are often the most willing to carry the weight. They're willing to walk into chaos, take on the pain, and look for order.
Starting a company is a way of voicing a different opinion to the world, in your own way.