Shopee 很难做，为什么 Tiger Global 越买越多？
English summary available ↓
I came across Chase Coleman's Tiger Global holdings chart and was surprised: its Sea position was worth over US$2 billion, bigger than its Amazon or Google stakes. My first reaction: isn't Shopee struggling? My impression was burning cash, subsidies and losses. Sellers around me complain that commissions keep rising, margins are squeezed, and you must keep buying ads or get no traffic. So why would a top fund keep adding? I tried to break it down. First, higher commissions mean only big brands can afford to play: Shopee is moving towards a shopping-mall model where small sellers drop out and big brands stay, paying commissions and buying ad space, much as malls rely on anchor tenants. Second, ads have become the cash cow: commission is base income, and ads are where profit comes from. Third, a digital finance loop through ShopeePay and SeaMoney keeps users' money circulating on the platform. Shopee's story is no longer subsidies for growth but commission, ads and finance together, with brands and the top sellers concentrated. Coleman may be betting not on today's Shopee but on Sea becoming Southeast Asia's mall, ad platform and wallet. I still see a twist: AI commerce is rewriting the rules. If users tell an AI agent what to buy instead of browsing Shopee, the ad traffic entry point could be swallowed. AI may help Shopee short term, but long term it could shake its foundations. Whether its moats can withstand that remains to be seen.
Read full English version →今天无意看到 Chase Coleman（Tiger Global）的持仓图，差点没认出来：SEA 的仓位超过 20 亿美金，甚至比 Amazon、Google 还高。
坦白说，我第一反应是：「咦？Shopee 不是做到很辛苦吗？」
过去我对 Shopee 的印象，就是烧钱、补贴、亏损连连。
身边不少卖家抱怨：佣金越来越高，毛利被压缩，广告还得继续买，不然没流量。
在我的直觉里，这种模式看起来不太健康。
偏偏 Tiger Global 这种顶级基金，越买越多。
为什么？
我试着拆解：
1. 佣金高了 → 大品牌才玩得起
Shopee 的逻辑已经不是「大家一起做」，而是往大型商场方向走。
- 小商家被淘汰。
- 大品牌留下来，付高佣金、还要买广告位。
这和商场越来越依赖 Zara、Uniqlo、星巴克的逻辑类似。租金不是主要利润，真正的钱来自大品牌的持续投入。
2. 广告变成现金牛
佣金只是基础收入，广告才是利润来源。
卖家要曝光，就必须买 Shopee Ads。广告收入已经是 Shopee 盈利的核心。
3. 数字金融闭环
用户端靠 ShopeePay、SeaMoney，做支付、分期、贷款。
这意味着用户资金沉淀在平台里，不只是一次性交易，而是金融循环。
Shopee 的故事已经改写：
- 不是补贴换增长，而是佣金 + 广告 + 金融三管齐下。
- 平台不再是「人人都能做」，而是往品牌化、头部集中化走。
Chase Coleman 敢重仓，也许看到的不是今天的 Shopee，而是一个正在变成「东南亚商场 + 广告平台 + 金融钱包」的 SEA。
当然，我还是觉得有悬念。
AI 电商正在重写游戏规则：
- 用户不一定需要自己刷 Shopee 页面。
- 只要对 AI 说一句话，AI Agent 就能比价、下单。
- 平台赖以生存的「广告流量入口」可能被 AI 吞掉。
短期来看，AI 也许帮 Shopee 提效（物流预测、广告推荐更精准）。
但长期，它可能动摇 Shopee 的根基：如果流量入口不在 Shopee，而在 AI，广告价值就会下降。
我觉得很有趣：
- 在我们眼里，Shopee 很难做；
- 在大佬眼里，SEA 是未来十年的「基础设施」。
佣金高、品牌买单、广告现金牛、金融闭环……这些是 Shopee 的护城河。
但能不能抵挡 AI 电商的重写？还需要继续观察。