要活得有自信：日本的三十年真的失落吗？
English summary available ↓
Over dinner I asked a senior mentor what mindset to bring to today's slowing economy. His answer was simple: live with confidence. We talked about Japan, whose three decades since the bubble are often called lost. A year ago I visited Japan with SIDEC to look at its startup ecosystem. Unlike Chinese and American startups chasing round after round of funding toward unicorn status, many Japanese startups solve real but small problems. The one that impressed me most was Instalimb, which uses 3D printing and AI to redesign how prosthetic limbs are made, bringing the price from tens of thousands down to thousands, aimed at developing countries like India and the Philippines. Such projects struggle to raise traditional VC money, since the market seems too small and payback too long. But when the founder spoke, his eyes were shining; he wasn't pitching, he was sharing his care for people and society. Were those years really lost? Japan has produced more than 20 Nobel laureates in that time, influential anime, design and precision manufacturing, and young stars in baseball, figure skating and shogi, and many lifestyles we now see as trendy, minimalism, sustainability, craftsmanship, come from its attitude of living finely. Not every great thing must bring huge returns. When the environment is tough, go back to your original intent and confidence. Confidence isn't just reading trends; it's holding firm to your mission.
Read full English version →前几天和一位前辈吃饭闲聊，谈到要用什么心态面对现在经济下滑的环境？
他回答得很简单：“要活得有自信。”
我们聊到了一个国家——日本。
很多人都说日本经历了“失落的三十年”，从泡沫经济破裂到人口老龄化，从高增长转入低迷，好像一切都停滞不前。
但真的如此吗？
解决“真实但小”的问题
去年这个时候，我有幸随 SIDEC 到日本考察当地的新创生态。
日本的创业环境和中美非常不同。中国和美国的新创往往追求“快、狠、准”，一轮轮融资、一场场 IPO，仿佛一定要成独角兽才叫成功。
但日本不一样，他们的新创公司很多是解决“真实但小”的问题。最让我印象深刻的，是一家名叫 Instalimb 的新创。他们用 3D 打印和 AI 技术，重新设计了义肢的生产方式，把原本要几万块的价格，压低到几千块，目标市场也不是发达国家，而是印度、菲律宾这些发展中国家。
义肢这种技术其实并不新，但真正让人敬佩的，是他们用技术让本来“买不起”的人，也可以重获生活质量。
这样的项目，老实说很难拿到传统 VC 的钱。市场不够大、回报周期太长，没法讲“独角兽故事”。但当我听那位创办人讲起他的愿景时，我看到他眼里发着光。他不是在 pitch，而是在分享他对“人”的关心、对“社会”的执着。
这一年多过去了，Instalimb 的名字我记得不太清楚，但他当时讲那段话的眼神，我到现在还记得。
日本这三十年，真的是“失落”吗？
或许，我们该用不同的角度看待。
过去 30 年，日本出现了 20 多位诺贝尔奖得主。在动漫、设计、精工制造等软实力领域，日本输出了大量有影响力的作品。棒球、花式滑冰、将棋，年轻一代在世界舞台上频频亮相。连我们今天许多看似潮流的生活方式——极简、环保、匠心主义，本质上也来自日本那股“活得精致”的态度。
虽然没有像 80 年代那样“好赚钱”，但日本人依然自信地活着，把小事做到极致，把困难变成磨练，把生活过得有品质。这种文化和精神，在我看来，非常值得我们学习。
不是所有伟大的事都必须带来巨额回报。不是所有创业的目的都是“上市圈钱”。有时候，选择做对的事，才最了不起。
对创业者来说，如果外部环境不佳，别急着埋怨世界，先回到内心，找回那份初心和自信。
自信，不只是对趋势的判断，更是对自己使命的坚定。