春江水暖鸭先知：低潮期，先活下来

As a business that faces consumers directly, we felt trade slowing as early as last September, kept trying new directions, and only saw some improvement early this year. Lately many friends and peers ask how business is. Worse than the last two years, but still getting by. What we see: wholesalers in the local Malay-wear market have been coming to us to clear stock since March, some saying they'll stop after Raya, some unable to pay wages, because seasonal Malay clothing unsold by the fasting month waits a year. Offline retail is tough too; one mall was running five different fairs at once, splitting already thin traffic. Online is no better: everyone moved there, so competition is fiercer, ad costs have surged and conversion is harder. Guangzhou's raw-material market was nearly empty, with materials at 30 to 40 percent of price, few orders since the new year, and factories afraid to set targets. I asked a mentor who lived through the 1997 Asian financial crisis. He called this minor and said: survive first. Go through every expense, cut what's unnecessary, accept lower sales but protect the ability to generate cash, and break problems into separate pieces to solve one by one. Veterans say it may last a year or two, but markets move in cycles, and feeling winter's cold means spring isn't far.