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2025年8月16日 · 创业 / 生活

从球鞋到创业:潮水褪去后的思考

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ENGLISH SUMMARY

Today the sole of one of my Yeezys finally split open. My love of sneakers goes back to childhood and Slam Dunk, and to the Jordan 1, which felt like a symbol of Jordan's refusal to lose. From 2019 to 2022 the sneaker world changed. For the first time I saw that a hobby could become money. A pair bought for RM600 on Nike's site could sell for RM1000 two weeks later. Resale platforms boomed and collectors borrowed money to flip shoes. The market felt like the stock market. I was swept in too. The most expensive pair I bought was this Yeezy, carried back from the UK by a friend for RM1200. Within a month it was worth RM2000. Then came the Kanye West controversy, Adidas ended the partnership, the Yeezy market collapsed, and the shoes became almost worthless. Only then did I start wearing them, for three years until they fell apart. As Buffett said, only when the tide goes out do you see who's swimming naked. Collecting is a hobby, and capital is fine, but speculation needs care. Now the market has cooled, young people call Nike and Adidas old-people shoes, and On, Hoka and Salomon have taken share. If even Nike's moat can be shaken, whether new brands last is worth watching. It's like starting a business: following the hype may pay quickly but carries big risk; what lasts is doing what you love and believe in, and waiting for the wind.

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今天我的一双 Yeezy 鞋底最终开嘴了。

一双穿旧的 Yeezy 球鞋放在黑色桌面上,鞋身褪色发皱,鞋底已经发黄,后跟处开裂

我和球鞋的缘分可以追溯到小时候,受《灌篮高手》影响,很喜欢 Jordan 1。那不仅是一双鞋,更像是承载着「Jordan 不服输精神」的象征。

球鞋变钱的年代

2019 到 2022 年,球鞋圈突然变了味。那时我第一次震惊地发现:原来「兴趣也能变钱」。

Nike 官网买 RM600,两个星期后就能卖到 RM1000。平台一轮轮融资,StockX 估值 34 亿美元,GOAT、毒、Nice 等平台热度爆棚。收藏者借贷炒鞋,市场疯狂得像股市。

我当时也被卷进去了。买过最贵的一双就是这双 Yeezy,找朋友从英国帮忙带,花了 RM1200。鞋到手后舍不得穿,一个月就涨到 RM2000。

后来 Kanye West 风波,Adidas 解约,Yeezy 市场瞬间崩塌。这双鞋最终变成「一文不值」,我才开始自己穿。穿了三年,最终烂掉。

潮水退后才知谁没穿裤子

巴菲特说过:潮水退去,才知道谁没穿裤子。

球鞋收藏本质上是爱好,资本化没问题,但投机一定要小心。爱好能带来快乐,但炒作会放大风险。

这几年市场冷静下来,Nike、Adidas 也被年轻人戏称为「老人鞋」。On、Hoka、Salomon 三个新星趁势崛起,蚕食了老大哥的份额。

但仔细想想,即便 Nike 拥有如此强的品牌护城河,都能被撼动,那么新品牌能否长期可持续,其实值得我们继续观察。

创业的映照

回头看球鞋圈,我觉得和创业很像。

跟风也许短期能赚快钱,但风险同样巨大。真正能走得远的,还是做自己喜欢、相信的事,等风自己吹来。

— Gary